Key points covered

• Escalation in the Middle East could increase the risk of a wider conflict.
• Higher oil prices would raise transport and production costs across the economy.
• Rising energy costs could push inflation higher globally.
• The duration and scale of the economic impact would depend on how long the conflict lasts.
• Renewed inflation could limit how far central banks are able to reduce interest rates.
• Continued money creation could add further inflationary pressure.
• Investors should expect short-term disruption and avoid reacting solely to immediate events.