Let’s cut to the chase – markets run on two things: fear and fundamentals. Right now, fear is firmly in the driving seat. The uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs – what they’ll be, how far they’ll reach – has left global markets jittery. Investors hate the unknown, especially when it comes to next year’s company profits. You’ve got retail investors panicking, and even some seasoned managers have lost their cool in the chaos.
But here’s the truth: markets always come back to fundamentals. The health of the global economy, inflation expectations – these are the anchors. The tariff talk has sparked a short-term blip, tied up with falling interest rates and US Treasury yields.
Why? Trump’s got $9 trillion of debt to refinance by June, and that’s keeping thing lively.
This volatility might stick around for a bit, but that’s not all bad news. If you’re steadily dripping money into your pension each month, you’re snapping up more units at bargain prices – a silver lining for the long-term saver. But if retirement’s justaround the corner, I can understand the worry. Without much time to ride out the dips – or a trusted adviser to chat it through with – it’s natural to feel the pressure.
My advice? If you’re at that stage, you should already have a plan for your income needs – whether monthly or quarterly. Keeping some cash set aside in your pension can cover that, so these market swings don’t touch the money you rely on.
Retirement income is hands-down the trickiest (and riskiest) part of your financial journey. That’s where good, independent advice makes all the difference – ideally before you hit that point.
So, what’s happened lately? Over the weekend, 50 countries waved the white flag, while more followed on Monday. The EU’s caved, and Trump’s now upping the ante with hefty tariffs on China unless they buckle – which, let’s be honest, they probably will in the end. Last Friday, hedge funds got caught out, forced to sell, and that sparked the market mayhem you saw on the news.
But step back for a moment. The real world paints a brighter picture: inflation’s easing, energy costs are down, and growth looks solid across most of the world, with estimates around 3% global growth this year. This crash? It’s got no real legs in the fundamentals. Oil’s cheap, inflation’s trending down, and companies are, by and large, in great shape. Add in expected rate cuts this year, and I’m quietly confident about global growth.
So, what’s the play? Simple. Don’t let fear kill your mindset – or your portfolio. If your investments are in the hands of pros who balance equities with government bonds and gold, you’ve got a buffer against the wild swings you’re seeing on TV. History backs this up – think back to 2020. Lockdown hit, markets tanked, but a few months later, they bounced back, and the year ended strong.
I’ll keep you posted if anything big crops up, but for now, the signs are promising for 2025 and beyond. Don’t get swept up in the drama – focus on the fundamentals, and we’ll navigate this together.
Alan Lazenby
Independent Financial Adviser
Lazenbys Financial Services Ltd
